When Will We See the First Frost?
This is one of the most commonly asked questions in September and October. The HGIC staff cannot predict the exact day that you’ll see “frost on the pumpkin” in your garden. But we think that this “Fall Freeze-Date Table” gives you a pretty accurate prediction for when the temperature will dip to 32º F. or lower, at 25 locations in Maryland. This chart is more useful than most because you can learn the probability of freezing temperatures on various dates.
Keep two things in mind-
1) the likelihood of frost will vary between landscapes in the same town or even neighborhood, due to many factors such as, changes in wind, elevation, and proximity to buildings and water;
2) the surest way to know when the first frost is expected is to closely monitor weather conditions using web sites, a weather radio, or newspaper and TV reports.
Why do gardeners care about the first frost?
Very tender annual plants, like basil, tomato, cucumber, pepper, marigold, are damaged or killed by freezing temperature. Plan to gather the final harvest before the first significant frost. Pumpkins, winter squash, white potatoes, and sweet potatoes can also be injured by a heavy frost. Cold temperatures will improve the flavor and texture of kale, collards, cabbage, and turnip greens. Bring tender annual flowers like geranium and begonia indoors before the first frost if you plan to keep them growing indoors through the winter.
Percent Probability of Temperature 32 Degrees F. Or Lower, On Or Before Given Date * |
WESTERN MARYLAND |
| Station |
10%
1 yr. in 10 |
33%
1 yr. in 3 |
50%
1 yr. in 2 |
67%
2 yrs. in 3 |
90%
9 yrs. in 10 |
| Cumberland |
Sep. 26 |
Oct. 07 |
Oct. 12 |
Oct. 17 |
Oct. 26 |
| Hagerstown |
Sep. 28 |
Oct. 11 |
Oct. 17 |
Oct. 23 |
Nov. 04 |
| Hancock |
Sep. 21 |
Oct. 01 |
Oct. 06 |
Oct. 11 |
Oct. 21 |
| Oakland |
Sep. 15 |
Sep. 22 |
Sep. 26 |
Sep. 30 |
Oct. 07 |
NORTH-CENTRAL MARYLAND |
| Station |
10%
1 yr. in 10 |
33%
1 yr. in 3 |
50%
1 yr. in 2 |
67%
2 yrs. in 3 |
90%
9 yrs. in 10 |
| Balt. Airport |
Oct. 17 |
Oct. 23 |
Oct. 28 |
Nov. 02 |
Nov. 08 |
| Baltimore City |
Oct. 30 |
Nov. 08 |
Nov. 13 |
Nov. 18 |
Nov. 28 |
| Bel Air |
Sep. 28 |
Oct. 10 |
Oct. 16 |
Oct. 22 |
Nov. 03 |
| Frederick |
Oct. 07 |
Oct. 17 |
Oct. 22 |
Oct. 27 |
Nov. 06 |
| Westminster |
Oct. 06 |
Oct. 15 |
Oct. 20 |
Oct. 25 |
Nov. 03 |
| Woodstock |
Sep. 28 |
Oct. 07 |
Oct. 12 |
Oct. 17 |
Oct. 26 |
| Rockville |
Oct. 01 |
Oct. 12 |
Oct. 18 |
Oct. 24 |
Nov. 04 |
SOUTHERN MARYLAND |
| Station |
10%
1 yr. in 10 |
33%
1 yr. in 3 |
50%
1 yr. in 2 |
67%
2 yrs. in 3 |
90%
9 yrs. in 10 |
| Annapolis (Naval Acad.) |
Nov. 02 |
Nov. 12 |
Nov. 17 |
Nov. 22 |
Dec. 02 |
| College Park |
Oct. 07 |
Oct. 16 |
Oct. 21 |
Oct. 26 |
Nov. 04 |
| La Plata |
Oct. 05 |
Oct. 16 |
Oct. 21 |
Oct. 26 |
Nov. 06 |
| Upper Marlboro |
Sep. 29 |
Oct. 09 |
Oct. 14 |
Oct. 19 |
Oct. 29 |
| National Arboretum (DC) |
Oct. 17 |
Oct. 26 |
Oct. 31 |
Nov. 05 |
Nov. 14 |
| Solomons |
Oct. 25 |
Nov. 08 |
Nov. 15 |
Nov. 22 |
Dec. 16 |
EASTERN SHORE |
| Station |
10%
1 yr. in 10 |
33%
1 yr. in 3 |
50%
1 yr. in 2 |
67%
2 yrs. in 3 |
90%
9 yrs. in 10 |
| Cambridge |
Oct. 13 |
Oct. 22 |
Oct. 27 |
Nov. 01 |
Nov. 10 |
| Chestertown |
Oct. 18 |
Oct. 27 |
Nov. 01 |
Nov. 06 |
Nov. 15 |
| Denton |
Oct. 07 |
Oct. 16 |
Oct. 21 |
Oct. 26 |
Nov. 04 |
| Royal Oak |
Oct. 16 |
Oct. 27 |
Nov. 02 |
Nov. 08 |
Nov. 19 |
| Princess Anne |
Oct. 07 |
Oct. 16 |
Oct. 20 |
Oct. 24 |
Nov. 02 |
| Salisbury |
Oct. 10 |
Oct. 20 |
Oct. 25 |
Oct. 30 |
Nov. 09 |
| Snow Hill |
Oct. 08 |
Oct. 18 |
Oct. 25 |
Oct. 28 |
Nov. 07 |
| Crisfield |
Oct. 29 |
Nov. 8 |
Nov. 13 |
Nov. 20 |
Nov. 30 |
*Source: Maryland Department of Agriculture, Ag Statistics
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